Early noughties nostalgia is all the rage right now, so it’s fitting that the England men’s football team have got into the spirit of the times by serving up a tournament performance reminiscent of Sven Goran Eriksson’s failed ‘Golden Generation’. All the hallmarks of that hopeful, yet ultimately disappointing era have been on show during their opening two games of Euro 2024.

Players are being deployed out of position, the camp has been affected by some off-field distractions and the manager is facing the harshest media criticism of his time in charge. Some of the squad have even fired back.

After Gary Lineker called the Three Lions’ display against Denmark “sh*t”, captain Harry Kane issued a lengthy rebuttal. “The bottom line is, we haven’t won anything as a nation for a long, long time. And, you know, a lot of these ex-players were part of that as well… they do know that it’s tough to play in these major tournaments. It’s tough to play for England,” he told the press.

This sorry episode gives an indication of how low morale is in the country following that dismal draw with Denmark and unconvincing victory over Serbia. But has the overwhelmingly negative reaction been fair? England are top of their group for starters and, barring a quite remarkable turn of events, will progress to the knockouts. Perhaps it might be okay after all?..

Teams don’t peak in the group stages

For starters, it’s worth remembering that teams who do well at tournaments do not tend to peak in the group stages. This isn’t just a tired cliche either. Evidence from the most recent international competitions back it up. Take the 2022 World Cup, for example.

Lionel Messi’s Argentina would end up triumphing in Qatar, but do you remember how their campaign started? That’s right – they were beaten by minnows Saudi Arabia.

Didier Deschamps’ France have consistently been slow burners at tournaments, too. During their run to 2018 World Cup glory, there wasn’t much to get their fans excited about in the group stages. In their opener, they required a penalty and a late own goal to get past Australia, while they only beat Peru 1-0 before playing out a drab goalless draw against Denmark.

Portugal’s Euro 2016 group stage was even less convincing. Three draws meant they ended up finishing third in their group, behind lowly Hungary and Iceland. Fernando Santos’ side would, however, still go on to lift the trophy in Paris.

This pattern should give England heart. Southgate’s charges may not hit top gear yet, but recent history shows this isn’t necessary to reach a final.

Lessons from Euro 2020

The Three Lions have personal experience of this, too. Prior to reaching the Euro 2020 final under Southgate, where they would eventually lose on penalties to Italy, they hardly blew their opposition away in the group stages.

Key men Harry Kane and Kyle Walker underwhelmed in the opener against Croatia, and a 0-0 draw with Scotland in the following game was pretty abysmal all round. In the wake of that, the pundits struck a very similar tone to after the Denmark draw.

“Football ain’t coming home with that, not the way they are playing,” Graeme Souness said on ITV. “Harry Kane not performing is a major problem. If [he is not scoring] in this competition, you’re not going very far.”

Gary Neville’s analysis was along very similar lines. “Is it too big for them in terms of expectation? A few of those lads, it’s probably the biggest game they’ve played in. That was such a lacklustre display,” he said.

After that low point, England bounced back by beating Czech Republic and then Germany in the last 16, with Southgate responding to some of his side’s shortcomings by making a few tactical tweaks. His job now is to show his nous again and instigate a turnaround in Germany.

Don’t forget about the talent

If this can happen, the results could still be special. It might seem like a bit of a reach following those two turgid displays, but player for player England still have the best squad at Euro 2024. It features La Liga’s and the Premier League’s Player of the Season, the European Golden Shoe winner and plenty more who have tons of top-level experience.

Surely the likes of Foden, Bellingham, Kane and the rest can’t play quite as badly as they did against Denmark when England face Slovenia on Tuesday? It’s that sort of blind hope that the Three Lions faithful have been clinging onto in the days that followed that terrible draw.

But if similar problems persist, it’s difficult to see Southgate raising the group for what is bound to be an extremely difficult last-16 game.