President Donald Trump’s recent sharp criticism of Vladimir Putin and Russia’s drone attacks on Ukraine have been dismissed by the Kremlin as mere “emotional overload.” Despite Trump calling Putin “crazy” on social media and expressing frustration, his past reluctance to take tough action on Russia makes it unclear if this signals any real change.

The Kremlin views the intensified attacks as a test to see whether Trump will back up his words with concrete measures—such as imposing new sanctions or increasing military aid to Ukraine. Trump has hinted at possibly introducing secondary sanctions on Russian business partners or authorizing more weapons shipments, but doing so would contradict his previous opposition to spending billions on Ukraine and require a major political reversal.

If Trump chooses instead to disengage, as some within his MAGA base and administration have hinted, it could embolden Russia to continue its war of attrition, damaging European security and U.S. credibility.

Allies like France and Germany are watching closely. French President Macron recently warned that Putin’s promises of peace were lies, and German Chancellor Merz suggested Ukrainian weapons could now strike deeper into Russian territory, signaling growing European resolve.

Experts caution that Trump’s past behavior suggests his tough talk may be temporary political posturing rather than a new policy. Former intelligence officials stress that real pressure on Putin is needed, and until Trump acts, Putin will likely continue to see him as bluffing.

In short: The war’s trajectory may hinge on whether Trump turns words into action—or if the Kremlin’s gamble that he won’t pay off again.