For more than three years, Russia has used its fleet of bombers to rain hellfire on Ukraine. On June 1, Kyiv responded by going after those bombers.

The operation, codenamed “Spiderweb,” was 18 months in the making. Dozens of hidden drones emerged from trucks parked in Russia, racing to airfields thousands of miles from Ukraine and destroying at least 12 bombers.

Although the operation was a huge boost for Ukrainian morale, many in the country braced for Moscow’s retaliation. Their fears sharpened when Russian President Vladimir Putin told his US counterpart Donald Trump on Wednesday that the Kremlin would “have to respond” to the attack.

Russia’s initial retaliation began Thursday night, in the form of a massive drone and missile strike on Kyiv and across the country. Russia’s Ministry of Defense described the strikes as a “response” to Kyiv’s “terrorist acts.” The attack was punishing, but not qualitatively different to what Ukraine has grown used to over three years of war.

Olha, a 67-year-old resident of Kyiv who asked to be identified only by her first name, told CNN that if Thursday night’s strikes were Russia’s retaliation, then Ukraine faces “many such retaliations – once a month, even more.”

Russia’s response so far to Ukraine’s extraordinary operation has raised questions about Putin’s ability to escalate the war and exact the retribution that many of his supporters have clamored for. And it has left Ukrainians wondering if it has already felt the brunt of Russia’s response, or if the worst is yet to come.

In determining Russia’s retaliation, analysts say, Putin has faced several constraints. One is political: Mounting a large-scale, innovative response to the “Spiderweb” operation would be akin to admitting that Ukraine had inflicted a serious blow against Russia – an impression the Kremlin has been at pains to avoid, said Kateryna Stepanenko, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington DC.

n a meeting with government ministers on Wednesday, Putin received a lengthy briefing on recent bridge collapses in Kursk and Bryansk, blamed by Russia on Ukraine. Yet, aside from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s reference to recent “criminal provocations” by Kyiv, there was no mention of the “Spiderweb” operation.

In Russian state media’s coverage of Putin’s call Wednesday with Trump, little was made of the Russian president’s pledge to “respond” to Ukraine’s attack. Instead, the reports focused on the outcome of recent peace talks in Istanbul.

Stepanenko said this is part of a deliberate strategy. “Putin is trying to make this go away and hide this failure yet again,” she told CNN. She said a high-profile response “would contradict the Kremlin’s strategic objective of making it all go away and sweeping this under the rug.”

Tit for tat?

Putin has also faced material constraints. Whereas Russia’s near-daily strikes on Ukraine used to involve just dozens of drones, they now routinely use more than 400. A day before Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” operation, on May 31, Russia launched 472 drones at Ukraine – a record in the three-year war, which was surpassed again during Sunday night’s attacks, which used 479 drones.

“Russia’s response is constrained by the amount of force they’re constantly using,” said William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official now at the Stimson Center think tank.

“How would you know if Russia was actually retaliating? What would be more brutal than them destroying apartment flats or attacking shopping malls? What would escalation look like?”

Russia’s pro-war community of Telegram bloggers was not short of ideas. Some prominent channels said that Kyiv’s strikes on Moscow’s nuclear-capable bombers warranted a nuclear strike on Ukraine. Others called for a strike using the Oreshnik ballistic missile, which was unveiled by Putin last year, and has so far been used only once against Ukraine.

Although Putin often praises his new missile, it has limited uses, said Mark Galeotti, a leading Russia analyst.

“The Oreshnik is really geared for a particular kind of target. It’s not that accurate… and it’s not a bunker-buster,” he told CNN, meaning the missile would struggle to take out key manufacturing and decision-making hubs that Ukraine has moved deep underground. “If you’re going to deploy it… you want it to have a target that’s worthy of the name.”